Some of the world’s leading economists say the global economy will start to emerge from recent lows as countries ease lockdown measures.
Economists around the world from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Irvine Humphries Global say they are beginning to see indications that the global economy is starting to recover. In several countries that have either passed the peak of their coronavirus outbreak or managed to successfully contain it, lockdown measures have been eased. This has results in the economies of these countries gradually starting to pick up.
Economists at Goldman Sachs and Irvine Humphries Global anticipate that the economies of developed countries severely hit by the novel coronavirus could shrink by an average of 32 percent in the period from April to June this year. In the third quarter it is expected that economic growth will rebound by around 16 percent and another 13 percent in the final quarter of 2020.
Risk dependent recovery for global economy
Analysts at Morgan Stanley also stated that there was evidence to suggest a rebound of the world’s economy. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, Chetan Ahya stated that economies like China, Europe and the US has all reached a low point in the first two quarters of this year.
Economists agree that the possibility and success of a global economic recovery will depend largely on the ongoing development of the coronavirus pandemic. Once lockdowns have been lifted, there is the chance of a second wave of infection which could even exceed the numbers seen in the first. This would have a disastrous impact on already fragile economies. HSBC has warned that economists should not rely on a V shaped recovery and referred to China’s difficulties in restarting its economy after lifting draconian measures that were put in place to contain the spread of the coronavirus.